Météo Spatiale (DONKI)
Dernières notifications sur l'activité solaire et la météo spatiale (Éruptions Solaires, Tempêtes Géomagnétiques, CME, etc.) fournies par le système DONKI de la NASA.
Affiche les événements des ~30 derniers jours.
💥 CME
18/06/2025 21:39 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, Solar Orbiter)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-18T19:39:30Z
Message ID: 20250618-AL-005
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-18T05:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~745 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 119/21 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-18T05:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-06-20T10:12Z and the flank will reach Solar Orbiter at 2025-06-20T14:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-18T05:00:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250618_095100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250618_095100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250618_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250618_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250618_095100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250618-AL-005
📜 Report
18/06/2025 20:49 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI)
Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Report for June 11, 2025 - June 17, 2025
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-18T18:49:14Z
Report Coverage Begin Date: 2025-06-11T00:00Z
Report Coverage End Date: 2025-06-17T23:59Z
Message ID: 20250618-7D-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Solar activity reached high levels during this reporting period with 1 X-class flare, 12 M-class flares, 3 O-type CMEs, and 23 C-type CMEs (see details below).
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it was estimated that the following CMEs were predicted to impact missions near Earth:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impact (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-06-15T08:12Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-06-18T00:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-6 (below minor to moderate)
(see notifications 20250615-AL-001, 20250615-AL-002).
2025-06-15T18:24Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-06-18T06:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-5 (below minor to minor)
(see notifications 20250616-AL-004).
2025-06-17T00:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-06-20T18:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20250617-AL-003).
2025-06-17T01:36Z NASA missions near Earth at 2025-06-20T18:00Z (glancing blow), Kp index 3-4 (below minor)
(see notification 20250617-AL-003).
It was also estimated that the following CMEs are predicted to impact the listed locations:
CME Starting time | Predicted Impacts (plus minus 7 hours)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025-06-11T06:48Z STEREO A at 2025-06-13T21:00Z (glancing blow).
2025-06-11T15:36Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-06T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250612-AL-001).
2025-06-11T18:48Z Mars at 2025-06-16T00:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250612-AL-003).
2025-06-11T22:24Z Juice at 2025-06-13T19:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-06-13T23:17Z (see notification 20250612-AL-002).
2025-06-13T07:12Z Mars at 2025-06-18T04:00Z (glancing blow).
2025-06-15T08:12Z Juice at 2025-06-17T14:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-06-17T06:56Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-17T03:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250615-AL-001, 20250615-AL-002).
2025-06-15T18:24Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-17T11:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250616-AL-004).
2025-06-16T02:12Z Juice at 2025-06-18T12:00Z (glancing blow), STEREO A at 2025-06-18T09:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250616-AL-003).
2025-06-17T00:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-19T22:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-06-24T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250617-AL-003).
2025-06-17T01:36Z OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-19T22:00Z (glancing blow), Psyche at 2025-06-24T12:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250617-AL-003).
2025-06-17T02:00Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-17T23:00Z, Mars at 2025-06-21T12:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2025-06-23T04:00Z, Lucy at 2025-06-24T08:00Z (see notifications 20250618-AL-001, 20250618-AL-003).
2025-06-17T05:00Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T03:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-06-22T01:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-06-23T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-06-25T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250618-AL-002, 20250618-AL-004).
2025-06-17T08:23Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T05:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-06-21T21:00Z (glancing blow) (see notification 20250617-AL-004).
2025-06-17T09:12Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T03:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-06-22T01:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-06-23T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-06-25T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250618-AL-002, 20250618-AL-004).
2025-06-17T16:24Z BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T03:00Z (glancing blow), Mars at 2025-06-22T01:00Z (glancing blow), Europa Clipper at 2025-06-23T06:00Z (glancing blow), Lucy at 2025-06-25T02:00Z (glancing blow) (see notifications 20250618-AL-002, 20250618-AL-004).
Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6.33 for the reporting period. The highest value of Kp = 6.33 occurred during the synoptic period 2025-06-13T00:00Z-03:00Z (see notifications 20250613-AL-001, 20250613-AL-002). This enhancement in geomagnetic activity was associated with the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-06-11T11:25Z which was likely associated with arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-06-11 and the interplanetary shock detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-06-12T19:30Z which was likely associated with the arrival of the S-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-06-08T02:48Z.
The > 2.0 MeV energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt briefly crossed the threshold level of 1000 pfu at 2025-06-13T14:35Z (see notifications 20250613-AL-003, 20250613-AL-004). This elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrivals of the coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-06-11 and the S-type CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-06-08T02:48Z detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 at 2025-06-12T19:30Z. The energetic electron flux levels returned to nominal levels later on 2025-06-13. The >2.0 MeV energetic electron flux levels exceeded the threshold of 1000 pfu again at 2025-06-17T12:55Z (see notifications 20250617-AL-001, 20250617-AL-002). This subsequent elevation of energetic electron flux levels was associated with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream detected by DSCOVR and ACE at L1 on 2025-06-14. The energetic electron flux levels remained elevated through the end of the reporting period.
The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES were at background levels for the entire reporting period. The 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A were elevated above background levels on 2025-06-15 but remained below threshold for the entire reporting period. This brief elevation in STEREO A protons may have been caused by the M2.2 flare from Active Region 14105 which peaked at 2025-06-15T08:02Z.
Space Weather Impact:
Space weather impacts on NASA spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this reporting period due to the elevated energetic electron flux in the Earth's outer radiation belt described above.
Events:
Flares (M-class and above)
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2025-06-13 20:49:00 21:21:00 21:10:00 M1.2 S15W58 ( 14105 )
2025-06-14 17:52:00 18:13:00 18:04:00 M1.0 S17W73 ( 14105 )
2025-06-14 22:51:00 23:09:00 23:01:00 M6.8 S17W73 ( 14105 )
2025-06-15 07:45:00 08:02:00 07:56:00 M2.2 S15W70 ( 14105 )
2025-06-15 10:32:00 10:53:00 10:47:00 M1.9 S16W85 ( 14105 )
2025-06-15 17:45:00 18:25:00 18:07:00 M8.4 N18E15 ( 14114 )
2025-06-15 23:43:00 00:05:00 23:57:00 M1.2 N18E13 ( 14114 )
2025-06-16 04:08:00 04:43:00 04:23:00 M1.8 N19E09 ( 14114 )
2025-06-16 09:17:00 09:48:00 09:38:00 M6.3 N17E07 ( 14114 )
2025-06-16 11:27:00 11:43:00 11:39:00 M1.4 S17W90 ( 14105 )
2025-06-16 14:43:00 15:03:00 14:55:00 M1.1 S18W92 ( 14105 )
2025-06-17 21:38:00 21:54:00 21:49:00 X1.2 N19W11 ( 14114 )
2025-06-17 23:44:00 00:15:00 00:00:00 M1.5 S13E89 ( 14117 )
CMEs (>500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-06-15T08:12Z ~806 C 57/-4 40 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-15T18:24Z ~1204 O -16/57 37 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-17T00:36Z ~717 C -36/31 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Non-Earth directed (POS = Plane Of Sky):
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2025-06-11T03:12Z ~672 C NONE(POS)/75 24 SOHO
2025-06-11T04:12Z ~748 C -88/31 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-11T06:48Z ~576 C 43/-5 10 SOHO, GOES
2025-06-11T14:36Z ~949 C -54/26 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-11T15:36Z ~608 C -97/23 16 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-11T18:48Z ~686 C -54/-2 15 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-11T22:24Z ~991 C 73/1 39 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-12T19:23Z ~1138 O -66/43 24 STEREO A, SOHO, GOES
2025-06-13T00:48Z ~583 C -87/23 14 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-13T07:12Z ~514 C -71/27 21 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-13T16:36Z ~513 C -24/49 18 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-06-13T20:00Z ~715 C 105/-12 11 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-14T22:30Z ~545 C 29/44 20 GOES, STEREO A
2025-06-15T04:12Z ~1078 O -25/68 25 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-15T06:48Z ~847 C NONE(POS)/59 12 SOHO, STEREO A
2025-06-16T02:12Z ~547 C 67/-4 35 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-16T08:23Z ~505 C 120/42 36 STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-16T11:00Z ~829 C -15/67 28 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-17T02:00Z ~887 C -90/-36 18 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-17T05:00Z ~606 C -109/-24 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-17T08:23Z ~804 C -104/19 12 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-17T09:12Z ~663 C -107/-24 15 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
2025-06-17T16:24Z ~830 C -100/-31 10 SOHO, STEREO A, GOES
Space Weather Outlook:
Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2025-06-18T00:00Z
Outlook Coverage End Date: 2025-06-24T23:59Z
Solar activity is expected to vary between moderate and high levels during the outlook period. There are currently six Active Regions on the Earth-facing disk. Active Region 14105 which produced seven of the M-class flares during the reporting period rotated off of the Earth-facing disk on 2025-06-16 and may continue to be a source of far-sided activity during the outlook period. Active Region 14114 (N18W21) produced the X-class flare and four of the M-class flares during the reporting period and may continue to exhibit notable flaring activity as it continues to traverse the Earth-facing disk.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to vary between low to moderate levels during the outlook period. Continued high speed stream effects from the large southern coronal hole extending from longitude E40 to beyond the west limb (as seen in available EUV imagery from SDO/AIA) are expected throughout the outlook period as it continues to traverse the Earth-facing disk. There may be some minor enhancements in the geomagnetic activity due to the potential arrival of a C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-06-15T08:12Z, an O-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2025-06-15T18:24Z, a C-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 on 2025-06-17T00:36Z, and an S-type CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 on 2025-06-17T01:36Z, which are predicted to impact NASA missions near Earth between 2025-06-18 to 2025-06-20.
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250618-7D-001
💥 CME
18/06/2025 17:47 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Lucy, Europa Clipper, BepiColombo, Mars)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-18T15:47:15Z
Message ID: 20250618-AL-004
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-06-17T05:00:00-CME-001, 2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-06-17T16:24:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250618-AL-002). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact Lucy (glancing blow) and Europa Clipper (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs may reach Lucy at 2025-06-25T02:00Z and Europa Clipper at 2025-06-23T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs may reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T03:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-22T01:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are (C-type):
1: Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T05:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~606 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -109/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T05:00:00-CME-001
2: Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T09:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~663 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001
3: Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T16:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~830 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -100/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T16:24:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-06-17T05:00:00-CME-001, 2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001, 2025-06-17T16:24:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
Notes:
This CME event (2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.5 flare from Active Region 14117 (S15E90) with ID 2025-06-17T08:06:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-17T08:13Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250618-AL-004
💥 CME
18/06/2025 15:36 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Lucy, Europa Clipper, BepiColombo, Mars)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-18T13:36:40Z
Message ID: 20250618-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Update on CME with ID 2025-06-17T02:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250618-AL-001). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Lucy (glancing blow) and Europa Clipper (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2025-06-24T08:00Z and Europa Clipper at 2025-06-23T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Previous simulations also estimate that the CME may affect BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-17T23:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-21T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
CME parameters are (C-type):
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~887 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -90/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T02:00:00-CME-001
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-17T02:00:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250618-AL-003
💥 CME
18/06/2025 04:14 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, Mars)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-18T02:14:33Z
Message ID: 20250618-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T05:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~606 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -109/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T05:00:00-CME-001
2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T09:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~663 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -107/-24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001
3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T16:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~830 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 10 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -100/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T16:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T03:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-22T01:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-06-17T05:00:00-CME-001, 2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001, 2025-06-17T16:24:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_100700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Notes:
This CME event (2025-06-17T09:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.5 flare (S15E90) with ID 2025-06-17T08:06:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-17T08:13Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250618-AL-002
💥 CME
18/06/2025 04:06 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Mars)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-18T02:06:16Z
Message ID: 20250618-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T02:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~887 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 18 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -90/-36 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T02:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow) and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-17T23:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-21T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-17T02:00:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250618-AL-001
☀️ FLR
18/06/2025 00:01 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - X1.2 Flare
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-17T22:01:00Z
Message ID: 20250617-AL-006
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-06-17T21:38Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-06-17T21:49Z.
Flare intensity: X1.2 class.
Source region: N19W11 (Active Region 14114) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T21:38:00-FLR-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250617-AL-006
☀️ FLR
17/06/2025 23:56 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-17T21:56:32Z
Message ID: 20250617-AL-005
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-06-17T21:47Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Notes:
ID: 20250617-AL-005
💥 CME
17/06/2025 23:47 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Mars)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-17T21:47:28Z
Message ID: 20250617-AL-004
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T08:23Z.
Estimated speed: ~804 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 12 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -104/19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T08:23:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (minor impact) and Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-18T05:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-21T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-17T08:23:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_122400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250617-AL-004
💥 CME
17/06/2025 18:46 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-17T16:46:16Z
Message ID: 20250617-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T00:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~717 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -36/31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T00:36:00-CME-001
2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-17T01:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~464 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -29/25 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T01:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Psyche (minor impact) and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the combined front of the CMEs will reach Psyche at 2025-06-24T12:00Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-19T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the combined front of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-20T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-06-17T00:36:00-CME-001, 2025-06-17T01:36:00-CME-001):
(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250617_052800_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Notes:
These CME events (2025-06-17T00:36:00-CME-001 and 2025-06-17T01:36:00-CME-001) are associated with C5.5 flare with ID 2025-06-16T23:53:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-17T00:21Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250617-AL-003
🔔 RBE
17/06/2025 15:42 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-17T13:42:10Z
Message ID: 20250617-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux exceeded 1000 pfu at 2025-06-17T12:55Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are caused by the coronal hole high speed stream which arrived on 2025-06-14, reaching a maximum sustained speed of approximately 580 km/s. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 460 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T12:55:00-RBE-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250617-AL-002
🔔 RBE
17/06/2025 15:16 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-17T13:16:12Z
Message ID: 20250617-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-06-17T12:55Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-06-17T12:55:00-RBE-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250617-AL-001
💥 CME
16/06/2025 21:06 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-16T19:06:14Z
Message ID: 20250616-AL-004
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-15T18:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~1204 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -16/57 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-17T11:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-18T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_211500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Notes:
This CME event (2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001) is associated with M8.4 flare from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) with ID 2025-06-15T17:45:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-15T18:07Z (see notifications 20250615-AL-003 and 20250615-AL-004).
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250616-AL-004
💥 CME
16/06/2025 17:30 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-16T15:30:31Z
Message ID: 20250616-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-16T02:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~547 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 67/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-16T02:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice (glancing blow) and STEREO A (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-06-18T12:00Z and STEREO A at 2025-06-18T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-16T02:12:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250616_080900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Notes:
This CME event (2025-06-16T02:12:00-CME-001) is associated with the C6.5 flare from Active Region 14109 (S16W77) with ID 2025-06-16T01:41:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-06-16T01:48Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250616-AL-003
☀️ FLR
16/06/2025 13:29 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.3 Flare
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-16T11:29:28Z
Message ID: 20250616-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-06-16T09:17Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-06-16T09:38Z.
Flare intensity: M6.3 class.
Source region: N17E07 (Active Region 14114) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-06-16T09:17:00-FLR-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250616-AL-002
☀️ FLR
16/06/2025 11:40 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-16T09:40:04Z
Message ID: 20250616-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-06-16T09:36Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Notes:
ID: 20250616-AL-001
☀️ FLR
15/06/2025 20:22 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M8.4 Flare
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-15T18:22:35Z
Message ID: 20250615-AL-004
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-06-15T17:45Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-06-15T18:07Z.
Flare intensity: M8.4 class.
Source region: N18E15 (Active Region 14114) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-06-15T17:45:00-FLR-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250615-AL-004
☀️ FLR
15/06/2025 20:05 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-15T18:05:52Z
Message ID: 20250615-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-06-15T18:01Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Notes:
ID: 20250615-AL-003
💥 CME
15/06/2025 16:44 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Juice, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-15T14:44:47Z
Message ID: 20250615-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Update/additional details on CME with ID 2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250615-AL-001).
This CME event (2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.2 flare with ID 2025-06-15T07:45:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 14105 (S15W70) which peaked at 2025-06-15T07:56Z.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250615-AL-002
💥 CME
15/06/2025 16:33 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX, Parker Solar Probe, Missions Near Earth)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-15T14:33:18Z
Message ID: 20250615-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-15T08:12Z.
Estimated speed: ~806 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 57/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juice, STEREO A, OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow), and Parker Solar Probe (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-06-17T14:29Z, STEREO A at 2025-06-17T06:56Z, and its flank may reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-06-17T03:00Z, and Parker Solar Probe at 2025-06-15T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME might have a cursory glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-18T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250615_124300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250615-AL-001
☀️ FLR
15/06/2025 01:11 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - M6.8 Flare
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-14T23:11:55Z
Message ID: 20250614-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES.
Flare start time: 2025-06-14T22:53Z.
Flare peak time: 2025-06-14T23:01Z.
Flare intensity: M6.8 class.
Source region: S17W75 (Active Region 14105) (based on SDO imagery).
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Activity ID: 2025-06-14T22:53:00-FLR-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250614-AL-003
☀️ FLR
15/06/2025 01:05 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-14T23:05:37Z
Message ID: 20250614-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significant flare detected by GOES. Flare intensity has crossed the threshold of M5.0.
Flare M5.0 crossing time: 2025-06-14T22:59Z.
Increased energetic proton fluxes possible. Updates on this event will be provided when available.
Notes:
ID: 20250614-AL-002
💥 CME
14/06/2025 04:38 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Parker Solar Probe)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-14T02:38:49Z
Message ID: 20250614-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-13T20:00Z.
Estimated speed: ~715 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 105/-12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-13T20:00:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may give a glancing blow to Parker Solar Probe. The flank of the CME may reach Parker Solar Probe at around 2025-06-15T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-13T20:00:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250614_005000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250614_005000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250614_005000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Notes:
Parker Solar Probe is not appearing on these simulation animations because the perihelion pass places it inside the simulations inner boundary. Because of this the Parker Solar Probe arrival time in this notification is an approximate estimate.
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250614-AL-001
🔔 RBE
13/06/2025 18:05 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-13T16:05:03Z
Message ID: 20250613-AL-004
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-06-13T14:35Z.
The elevated energetic electron flux levels are likely caused by the combined arrival of a high speed stream starting on 2025-06-11, reaching a maximum speed of approximately 490 km/s, and the arrival of the CME with ID 2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001. The arrival of this CME was likely detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2025-06-11T09:28Z, leading to a moderate geomagnetic storm with ID 2025-06-13T00:00:00-GST-001 (see notifications 20250613-AL-001 and 20250613-AL-002). Analysis is ongoing for this signature. The solar wind speed observed at L1 is currently around 400 km/s.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-06-13T14:35:00-RBE-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250613-AL-004
🔔 RBE
13/06/2025 16:44 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Radiation Belt Enhancement
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-13T14:44:00Z
Message ID: 20250613-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Significantly elevated energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt. GOES "greater than 2.0 MeV" integral electron flux is above 1000 pfu starting at 2025-06-13T14:35Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's outer radiation belt can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-06-13T14:35:00-RBE-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250613-AL-003
🌀 GST
13/06/2025 14:31 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-13T12:31:12Z
Message ID: 20250613-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Intensifying space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-06-13T00:00Z to 2025-06-13T03:00Z.
The storm is caused by the Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-06-11T11:25:00-IPS-001, likely associated with the combined arrival of the CME with ID 2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001 and/or coronal hole high speed stream starting on 2025-06-11. Analysis of this combined signature is ongoing.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-06-13T00:00:00-GST-001.
Notes:
This event is associated with Interplanetary Shock with ID 2025-06-11T11:25:00-IPS-001.
ID: 20250613-AL-002
🌀 GST
13/06/2025 05:03 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Auto-generated Space Weather Notification - Geomagnetic Storm
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-13T03:03:41Z
Message ID: 20250613-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Ongoing space weather storm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Geomagnetic Kp index has reached level 6.33 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2025-06-13T00:00Z to 2025-06-13T03:00Z.
NASA spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth's ring current and auroral regions can be impacted.
Activity ID: 2025-06-13T00:00:00-GST-001.
Notes:
ID: 20250613-AL-001
💥 CME
12/06/2025 14:54 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-12T12:54:02Z
Message ID: 20250612-AL-003
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-11T18:48Z.
Estimated speed: ~686 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 15 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -54/-2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-11T18:48:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars (glancing blow). The flank of the CME will reach Mars at 2025-06-16T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-11T18:48:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_232800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_232800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_232800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_232800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250612-AL-003
💥 CME
12/06/2025 14:33 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juice, STEREO A)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-12T12:33:40Z
Message ID: 20250612-AL-002
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-11T22:24Z.
Estimated speed: ~991 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): 73/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-11T22:24:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Juice and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach Juice at 2025-06-13T19:29Z and STEREO A at 2025-06-13T23:17Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-11T22:24:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250612_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250612-AL-002
💥 CME
12/06/2025 04:40 CEST
Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo)
Message Issue Date: 2025-06-12T02:40:31Z
Message ID: 20250612-AL-001
Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO.
Start time of the event: 2025-06-11T15:36Z.
Estimated speed: ~608 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 16 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -97/23 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.
Activity ID: 2025-06-11T15:36:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact BepiColombo (glancing blow). The flank of the CME may reach BepiColombo at 2025-06-12T15:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-06-11T15:36:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_214300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_214300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_214300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250611_214300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
ID: 20250612-AL-001
Données via NASA DONKI API.